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Elgin, Ceyhun; Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Yu, Shu - 2021

-economy business cycles tend to be shallower in advanced economies than in EMDEs. Informal employment in both advanced economies and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012625108

Do Double Majors Face Less Risk? : An Analysis of Human Capital Diversification

Hanks, Andrew S.; Jiang, Shengjun; Qian, Xuechao; Wang, Bo - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study how human capital diversification, in the form of double majoring, affects the response of earnings to labor market shocks. Double majors experience substantial protection against earnings shocks, of 56%. This finding holds across different model specifications and data sets....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468295

EU employment dynamics : the pandemic years and beyond

Jestl, Stefan; Stehrer, Robert - 2021

difficulties. This study explores potential future employment dynamics across European industries and employment groups for the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012665259

Financial variables as predictors of real growth vulnerability

Reichlin, Lucrezia; Ricco, Giovanni; Hasenzagl, Thomas - 2020 - This version: 30th October 2019

We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012173525

Business Cycles and Healthcare Employment

Aslim, Erkmen Giray; Chou, Shin-Yi; De, Kuhelika - 2022

Is healthcare employment recession proof? We examine the hypothesis that healthcare employment is stable across the … employment responds to recessions, and show that this response depends largely on the type of the exogenous shock triggering the … recession. We ﬁnd that healthcare employment responds procyclically to demand-induced recessions; and the reduction is driven by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013301439

Regime-Based Tactical Allocation for Equity Factors and Balanced Portfolios

Flint, Emlyn James - 2017

It is now an accepted fact that the majority of financial markets worldwide are neither normal nor constant, and South Africa is no exception. One idea that can be used to understand such markets and has been gaining popularity recently is that of regimes and regime-switching models. In this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012952837

Super-resolution Estimation of Cyclic Arrival Rates

Chen, Ningyuan - 2019

Exploiting the fact that most arrival processes exhibit cyclic behaviour, we propose a simple procedure for estimating the intensity of a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The estimator is the super-resolution analogue to Shao 2010 and Shao & Lii 2011, which is a sum of p sinusoids where p and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902891

Identification and Real-Time Forecasting of Norwegian Business Cycles

Aastveit, Knut Are - 2015

We define and forecast classical business cycle turning points for the Norwegian economy. When defining reference business cycles, we compare a univariate and a multivariate Bry-Boschan approach with univariate Markov-switching models and Markov-switching factor models. On the basis of a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021261

A MIDAS Approach to Modeling First and Second Moment Dynamics

Pettenuzzo, Davide - 2015

We propose a new approach to predictive density modeling that allows for MIDAS effects in both the first and second moments of the outcome. Specifically, our modeling approach allows for MIDAS stochastic volatility dynamics, generalizing a large literature focusing on MIDAS effects in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013033107

Expectation formation, financial frictions, and forecasting performance of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models

Holtemöller, Oliver; Schult, Christoph - 2018

In this paper, we document the forecasting performance of estimated basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and compare this to extended versions which consider alternative expectation formation assumptions and financial frictions. We also show how standard model features,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897574

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