PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of bank mergers on systemic and systematic risks on the relative merits of product and market diversification strategies. It also observes determinants of M&A deals criteria, product and market diversification positioning, crisis...

In credit portfolio modeling the asset correlation parameter is used to describe the degree of default rates fluctuations. In this article we estimate the asset correlation parameter for banks and other industry sectors from default data. We find that estimates of the asset correlation vary...

This paper studies whether credit rating agencies applied consistent rating standards to U.S. corporate bonds over the expansion and recession periods between 2002 and 2011. Based on estimates of issuing firms' credit quality from a structural model, I find that rating standards are in fact...

Identifying the drivers of credit cycles is crucial for prudential regulation. We show in a model that investor sentiments result in excessive asset price movements, leading to sharp credit reversals. Motivated by this, we decompose fluctuations in stock prices into fundamental and noise shocks...

Global Recession to Global Recovery: It is well known fact that all good things, as also bad things, come to an end and business cycles pass through good and bad economic times. Economically 2010 was a year of transition from economic recession to recovery. Economies were improving in some...

This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country...

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly...

Die Hochkonjunktur, in der sich die deutsche Wirtschaft seit vergangenem Jahr befindet, hat an Schwung verloren. Insbesondere die außenwirtschaflichen Risiken haben deutlich zugenommen. Im laufenden und im kommenden Jahr wird nunmehr mit einem Zuwachs des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 1,8 %...

Die ostdeutsche Wirtschaft bleibt auf Wachstumskurs. Jedoch lähmten im ersten Quartal Streiks und die Grippewelle die Produktion. Zudem nahmen die weltwirtschaflichen Risiken wieder zu, wodurch die Unternehmen geplante Investitionen auf-schieben dürfen. Diese Effekte bremsen das Wachstum....

Nach einer kurzen Verschnaufpause zu Jahresbeginn hat die deutsche Wirtschaft wieder an Schwung gewonnen. Für das laufende und das kommende Jahr ist mit einem Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts von jeweils 1,9% zu rechnen, bevor sich die Konjunktur im Jahr 2020 allmählich abschwächen...