I show that inter-firm lending plays an important role in business cycle fluctuations. I first build a tractable network model of the economy in which trade in intermediate goods is financed by supplier credit. In the model, a financial shock to one firm affects its ability to make payments to...

This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008-09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earning call transcripts and a structural...

This paper discusses the role that stock market volatility plays in the linkages between the U.S. stock and Treasury bond markets through liquidity under different regimes of investor sentiment in a threshold vector autoregression model. The baseline analysis shows that the interaction between...

In the past twenty years, measures of economic uncertainty have been developed that are either purely market price-based, structural model-based using data on real fundamentals and asset prices, text-based, or survey-based. We compare the performance of these uncertainty measures in forecasting...

This paper contributes to a better understanding of the important role that credit demand plays for credit markets and aggregate macroeconomic developments as both a source and transmitter of economic shocks. I am the first to identify a structural credit demand equation together with credit...

The shale gas boom has revolutionized the energy sector through hydraulic fracturing. High levels of energy production force communities, states, and nations to consider the externalities and potential risks associated with this unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD). In this review, we...

After several years of low and stable prices for its gas exports to CIS countries, Russia has decided to review these arrangements and to significantly increase prices, bringing them closer to the levels applied to the EU. The steep increase in energy prices has significant economic implications...

Do technological improvements mitigate the potential damages from extreme weather events? We address this question using oil production and hurricane data from the Gulf of Mexico. We show that hurricane activity lowers well production and that stronger storms have larger impacts that persist for...

We investigate the information content of aggregate stock market liquidity and askwhether it may be a useful realtime indicator, both for nancial stress, and real economicactivity in Norway. We describe the development in a set of liquidity proxies at the OsloStock Exchange (OSE) for the period...

Gerhard Illing, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München analysiert die Geld- und Fiskalpolitik in der Wirtschaftskrise: Kernproblem ist ein Konflikt zwischen Preis- und Finanzmarktstabilität: Die labile Konjunktur würde eigentlich niedrige Zinsen erfordern; niedrige Zinsen ermuntern aber die...