The paper uses capital and labor utilization rates to derive estimates of the Japanese output gap and potential output. Two techniques are used. The first uses the cyclical indicators to adjust potential output estimates derived from a Hodrick- Prescott filter over the most recent period when...

It is still insufficiently realised, even now, that the US and therefore the rest of the world may be on the brink of a severe and intractable recession. As recently as September 2000, it was commonly held that the US business cycle had been abolished for ever, while the “consensus” forecast...

We identify similarities and differences in the scale and nature of the banking crises in 2008-2009 and the Great Depression, and analyse differences in the policy response to the two crises in light of the prevailing international monetary systems. We find that the scale of the banking crisis,...

Dopo la seconda guerra mondiale ci sono stati il regolamento degli aiuti concessi sulla base del Lend-lease, l'istituzione del sistema di Bretton Woods, il prestito alla Gran Bretagna e, infine, il piano Marshall. Riflettendo su quel periodo ho proposto una mia legge delle politiche economiche...

The strategic outlook of the U.S. can be assessed by analyzing the balance sheets of its main sectors, which are mutually linked by a coherent system of accounting. The expansion of the period 1992-2000 was greeted by a wave of complacency in the United States and it was thought that it could...

This paper analyses the monetary policy of the Most Serene Republic of Venice in the years of calamities using a modern equivalent of helicopter money, namely an extraordinary issue of (base) money, coupled with capital losses for the issuer. We treat the 1629 famine and the 1630-1631 plague as...

Price inflation in the euro area has been stable and low since the Global Financial Crisis, despite notable changes in output and unemployment. We show that an increasing share of high markup firms is part of the explanation of why inflation remained stubbornly stable and low in the euro area...

We propose a granular framework that makes use of advanced statistical methods to approximate developments in economy-wide expected corporate earnings. In particular, we evaluate the dynamic network structure of stock returns in the United States as a proxy for the transmission of shocks through...

Modern growth theory derives mostly from Robert Solow's “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth” (1956). Solow's own interpretation locates the origins of his “Contribution” in his view that the growth model of Roy Harrod implied a tendency toward progressive collapse of the...

This paper develops a novel and tractable empirical approach to estimate the cycle in schooling participation decisions, which we denominate the schooling cycle. The estimation procedure is based on unobserved components time series models that decompose higher education enrollment rates into a...