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Monetary aggregates to improve early output gap estimates in the euro area -- an empirical assessment
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens - 2014
Output gap estimates at the current edge are subject to severe revisions. This study analyzes whether monetary aggregates can be used to improve the reliability of early output gap estimates as proposed by several theoretical models. A real-time experiment shows that real M1 can improve output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010248220
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Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area
Weiske, Sebastian - 2019
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012309596
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Indicator-based estimates of the output gap in the euro area
Weiske, Sebastian - 2018
The output gap is a key variable of business cycle analysis and policy. Obtaining reliable estimates for it, is very difficult, though. Most real-time estimates are frequently revised over time. The idea of this paper is to use various indicators, for example from business surveys, that (i) were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928277
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An output gap measure for the euro area : exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity
Manuel, González-Astudillo, - 2018
trend. The estimation of the model preferred by the data indicates that, because of negative shocks to trend output during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011932248
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Mind the Output Gap : The Disconnect of Growth and Inflation During Recessions and Convex Phillips Curves in the Euro Area
Gross, Marco - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between output, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963916
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RGAP: output gap estimation in R
Streicher, Sina - 2022
Commission proposes a production function methodology that involves the estimation of two classes of Gaussian state space models … unobserved component models and offers frequentist as well as Bayesian estimation techniques. Additional functionalities include … preparation, model specification, and estimation processes using RGAP. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013256541
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Unobserved components model(s) : output gaps and financial cycles
Guillochon, Justine; Le Roux, Julien - 2023
The Global Financial Crisis established that policymakers should consider the stage of the financial cycle to better evaluate the cyclical position of the economy when designing monetary policy decisions. If financial variables are omitted from the estimations of the output gap, a common and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343145
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Mind the output gap : the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area
Groß, Marco; Semmler, Willi - Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636803
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Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?
Ubide, Angel J. - 2021
Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending on the preferences of the modeler. This model selection problem leads to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211944
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Coherence of output gaps in the euro area : the impact of the Covid-19 shock
Haan, Jakob de; Jacobs, Jan; Zijm, Renske - 2022
Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168003