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We propose a multivariate Bayesian state space model to identify potential growth and the output gap consistent with the dynamics of the underlying production sectors of the economy and those of inflation and the labor market. Our approach allows us to decompose economic fluctuations and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014427292
Productivity rises in booms and falls in recessions. There are four main explanations for this procyclical productivity … procyclical productivity as an essential feature of business cycles because each explanation has important implications for … utilization and resource reallocations are particularly important in explaining procyclical productivity. We also argue that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014141533
The relationship between recessions and productivity has been the focus of an important body of theoretical and … productivity in the aftermath of recessions. Our method allows us to distinguish between frontier technology and (in … reveal that the average cumulative impact of recessions on productivity up to four years after its end is negative and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003904195
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010467979
Various papers have identified shocks to investment as major drivers of output, investment, hours, and interest rates. These investment shocks have been linked to financial frictions because financial markets are instrumental in transforming consumption goods into installed capital. However, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105098
The empirical support for a DSGE type of real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure that makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is extended to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110953
The empirical support for features of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with two technology shocks is valuated using Bayesian model averaging over vector autoregressions. The model features include equilibria, restrictions on long-run responses, a structural break of unknown date...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108781
We develop a general equilibrium model to study the historical contribution of TFP news to the U.S. business cycle. Hiring frictions provide incentives for firms to start hiring ahead of an anticipated improvement in technology. For plausibly calibrated hiring costs, employment gradually rises...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011822212
In this paper we estimate a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with factor stochastic volatility in the error term to assess the effects of an uncertainty shock in the Euro area. This allows us to treat macroeconomic uncertainty as a latent quantity during estimation. Only a limited number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978764
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001708757