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Forecasting and policy making
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237
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Mind the output gap : the disconnect of growth and inflation during recessions and convex Phillips curves in the euro area
Groß, Marco; Semmler, Willi - Task Force on Low Inflation (LIFT) - 2017
We develop a theoretical model that features a business cycle-dependent relation between out- put, price inflation and … inflation expectations, augmenting the model by Svensson (1997) with a nonlinear Phillips curve that reflects the rationale … underlying the capacity constraint theory (Macklem (1997)). The theoretical model motivates our empirical assessment for the euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636803
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Backward-Looking Interest-Rate Rules, Interest-Rate Smoothing, and Macroeconomic Instability
Benhabib, Jess; Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, Martín - 2019
linking interest rates to forecasts of future inflation. Such rules have been found to give rise to aggregate fluctuations due … properties of interest-rate rules whereby the central bank responds to a measure of past inflation. The consensus view that has … inflation are likely to ensure global stability provided that the coefficient on lagged interest rates is greater than unity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014088861
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Estimating US Fiscal and Monetary Interactions : From Volcker Chairmanship to the Great Recession
Gerba, Eddie - 2013
Locating the appropriate degree of interaction between fiscal and monetary policy plays an important role in ensuring economic stability. Their joint impact is, however, still unclear. We observe significant differences in the transmission of shocks, in particular between the Great Recession and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013073633
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Macroeconomic Volatility : The Policy Lessons from Latin America
Singh, Anoop - 2006
The recent recovery in Latin America has been impressive but also raises the question whether this represents a fundamental break with the region's history of boom-bust cycles. The paper traces how this history of macroeconomic volatility and financial crisis over the past century has adversely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012779706
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The Evaluation of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Croatia Over a Business Cycle
Benazić, Manuel - 2015
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the controversies of fiscal and monetary policies in defining business cycles in Croatia, i.e. to answer the question whether they can, and in what way, determine the cyclical movements. Using Hodrick-Prescott filter for extracting cycles from selected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013029663
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Central bank independence and the monetary instrument problem
Niemann, Stefan; Pichler, Paul; Sorger, Gerhard - 2010
We study the monetary instrument problem in a model of optimal discretionary fiscal and monetary policy. The policy problem is cast as a dynamic game between the central bank, the fiscal authority, and the private sector. We show that, as long as there is a conflict of interest between the two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003951467
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Population growth, the natural rate of interest, and inflation
Weiske, Sebastian - 2019
population growth has lowered both the natural rate and inflation by about 0.4 percentage points in recent decades. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011980508
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The Role of Expectations in Economic Fluctuations and the Efficacy of Monetary Policy
Kurz, Mordecai; Jin, Hehui; Motolese, Maurizio - 2003
monetary policy. Since expectations affect demand, our theory shows economic fluctuations are mostly driven by varying demand … inflation volatility to zero. (iii) The statistical Phillips Curve changes substantially with policy instruments and activist … inflation hence the aggregate price level appears "sticky" with respect to money shocks. (v) Discretion in monetary policy adds …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014029667
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Fiscal Rules, Fiscal Space and Procyclical Fiscal Policy
Nerlich, Carolin - 2019
In this paper we analyse the interaction of fiscal rules and fiscal space. We find strong evidence for fiscal rules being associated with higher fiscal space. Furthermore, the analysis shows that countries with more fiscal space tend to have higher discretionary expenditures, but that this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012867815