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This paper presents a new stochastic volatility model which allows for persistent shifts in volatility of stock market … investigate economic (or market) sources of volatility shifts, without relying on exogenous information from the sample. In … effects of large return shocks on future levels of market volatility. The above properties of the model are shown based on a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107993
This chapter builds on previous work by Bhardwaj and Swanson (2004) who address the notion that many fractional I(d) processes may fall into the empty boxʺ category, as discussed in Granger (1999). However, rather than focusing primarily on linear models, as do Bhardwaj and Swanson, we analyze...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003698258
This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the US economy has changed over time. To this end, we develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on a range of variables. We find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
Epstein-Zin preferences to study the volatility implications of a monetary policy shock. An unexpected increases in the policy … rate by 150 basis points causes output and inflation volatility to rise around 10% above their steady-state standard … deviations. VAR based empirical results support the model implications that contractionary shocks increase volatility. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389786
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial … component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross …-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the U.K. economy has changed over time. To this end, we propose an extended time-varying VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on key macroeconomic and financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505897
volatility of US and UK GDP growth appears to have become increasingly correlated in the recent past. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554403
This paper uses a FAVAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the impact of uncertainty shocks on real income …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011448758
Macroeconomic uncertainty—the conditional volatility of the unforecastable component of a future value of a time series …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230543
We develop a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, estimate it with several … findings, the estimates suggest that global uncertainty plays a primary role in explaining the volatility of inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011904508