soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to …Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and … developments, the risk of stagflation-a combination of high inflation and sluggish growth-has risen. The recovery from the …

We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the … near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR …) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most …

markets now expect is not enough to reduce inflation to targets, experience from previous global recessions suggests that the …

A regime shift towards increased inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great … Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation … expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in …

-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the … Great Recession and the surge in inflation post-COVID-19. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when … inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate …

are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …

across the sample. Evidence in favour of a diminishing effect of oil price shocks on the output and inflation is found from … in the last part of the 1990s and, especially, for the CPI inflation in the 2000s. The most outstanding result is that … the oil price movements could explain at least some of the recent inflation, the main difference between these outcomes …

This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with …. While average output and inflation result the same as under rational expectations, higher moments differ substantially …: output and inflation show persistence, inflation responds sluggishly to nominal disturbances, and the dynamic correlations of …