This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit developments. Using an overlapping generations model, a normative trend level for the real household credit stock is derived that depends on four fundamental economic factors: real potential GDP, the...

We develop a model of bank lending that allows for credit rationing in equilibrium. Recognizing that small firms incur a higher percentage cost of monitoring than large firms, the model shows that the incidence of bank credit rationing rises more for small firms than for large firms during...

We develop a model in which margin procyclicality, asset market depth and banks' propensity for liquidity hoarding interact to generate a systemic liquidity crisis. In this model, banks trade derivatives to hedge market risk or to speculate on interest rate movements. To mitigate counterparty...

We study quantitatively how far shifts in the credit supply can generate a boom-bust cycle, similar to the one observed in the US around 2008. For this purpose, we develop a general equilibrium model that combines a rich heterogeneous agent overlapping-generations structure of households who...

The paper estimates the effects on the real economy of the sharp reduction in the supply of credit following the 2008 financial crisis. We develop a measure of local credit supply that is based on the market shares of the banks that serve a local economy and the national change in each bank's...

This paper analyses macroeconomic and financial determinants of bad loans applying a SVAR approach to investigate whether excessive loans granted during expansionary phases can explain the more than proportional increase in non-performing loans during contractionary periods. The results indicate...

The financial crisis of 2007-09 has sparked keen interest in models of financial frictions and their impact on macro activity. Most models share the feature that borrowers suffer a contraction in the quantity of credit. However, the evidence suggests that although bank lending contracted during...

The financial crisis of 2007-09 has sparked keen interest in models of financial frictions and their impact on macro activity. Most models share the feature that borrowers suffer a contraction in the quantity of credit. However, the evidence suggests that although bank lending contracted during...

The Basel III regulation explicitly prescribes the use of Hodrick-Prescott filters to estimate credit cycles and calibrate countercyclical capital buffers. However, the filter has been found to suffer from large ex-post revisions, raising concerns on its fitness for policy use. To investigate...

While the finance literature often equates government banks with political capture and capital misallocation, these banks can help mitigate financial shocks. This paper examines the role of Brazil's government banks in preventing a recession during the 2008-2010 financial crisis. Government...