This paper asks how a fiscal expansion would affect Japan. It uses a textbook-style macro model calibrated to fit the Japanese economy. According to the results, Japan's output slump would be ended by a fiscal transfer of 6.6% of GDP. This policy raises the debt-income ratio in the short run,...

This paper investigates the determinants of the "sacrifice ratio" for disinflation: the ratio of the loss in output to the fall in trend inflation. I develop a method for estimating the sacrifice ratio in individual disinflation episodes, and apply it to 65 episodes in moderate-inflation OECD...

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the Unites States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960- 2007 are used to predict inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this...