Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected … just over 10000 observations, we predict changes in the unemployment rate 12 months ahead. We do so using individuals …

Not only the level of aggregate unemployment but also the properties of its dynamics are an important topic in … asymmetric pattern in the evolution of unemployment, whereas linear models with Gaussian innovations preclude such dynamics. This … paper applies several tests for asymmetry to aggregate British, German and US unemployment data to assess the relevance of …

its successor Understanding Society. We find that the unemployment rate on leaving full-time education has large impacts …

Not only the level of aggregate unemployment but also the properties of its dynamics are an important topic in … asymmetric pattern in the evolution of unemployment, whereas linear models with Gaussian innovations preclude such dynamics. This … paper applies several tests for asymmetry to aggregate British, German and US unemployment data to assess the relevance of …

This paper analyses how labour market heterogeneity affects unemployment, productivity and business cycle dynamics that … skilled workers increases the natural rate of unemployment and reduces total factor productivity with long- run effects on the … Beveridge curves. Skill-specific labour market heterogeneity leads to a attening of the Phillips curve as wages and unemployment …

. Unemployed workers' skill losses generate multiple steady-state unemployment rates. When monetary policy is constrained by the … permanent unemployment trap. Since monetary policy is powerless to escape such traps ex post, it must avoid them ex ante. The …

We exploit a policy discontinuity at U.S. state borders to identify the effects of unemployment insurance policies on … unemployment. Our estimates imply that most of the persistent increase in unemployment during the Great Recession can be accounted … for by the unprecedented extensions of unemployment benefit eligibility. In contrast to the existing recent literature …

All developed economies have unemployment benefit programs to protect workers against major income losses during spells … of unemployment. By enabling unemployed workers to meet basic consumption needs, the programs protect workers from having … recessions. If benefits are too generous, however, the programs can lengthen unemployment and raise the unemployment rate. The …

-term unemployment rates, leading to the need to reform labour market institutions and make them more flexible. Flexible labour markets … employment and unemployment) but also to reduce the negative impacts on labour market of structural shocks. If we focus on the …, the countries with the best results in terms of unemployment and employment would have been those that had a more flexible …