How much do term premiums matter for explaining the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates? A lot. We characterize the expected path of nominal and real short-rates as well as inflation using the universe of U.S. surveys of professional forecasters covering more than 500 survey-horizon...

In this paper we use a non-tatonnement dynamic macroeconomic model to study the role of inventories, expectations and wages in the business cycle. Following a restrictive monetary shock, by amplifying spillover effects inventories may imply that the economy converges to a deflationary locally...

This paper investigates the effects of dynamic capital market conditions in a general equilibrium model, employing a process of switching steady-state levels of the volatility of market conditions (SS-uncertainty). Decision-makers predict SS-uncertainty regimes using past fundamental shocks, but...

Starting from the early 1990s, GDP in Japan stagnated for about a decade while inflation has been persistently low, at times even negative. This paper provides new stylized facts about the Japanese deflationary process and puts these facts into the context of the literature addressing the...