This paper considers a sticky price model with a cash-in-advance constraint where agents forecast inflation rates with … consistent with rational expectations once learning is complete. When past performance governs the choice of forecast model …, agents may prefer to use the inconsistent forecast model, which generates an equilibrium where forecasts are inefficient …

This article shows how the recovery of inflation in 2009-10 occurred precisely at the only time (since 1985) the models … would predict disinflation, i.e., inflation went up when the models said it should go down …

This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

forecast nominal GDP. The model is fully estimated in one step using a non-linear Kalman filter, which is applied to obtain … containing information on real economic activity, inflation, interest rates and Divisia monetary aggregates produces the most …

" macroeconomic events. We examine this conjecture by studying Bayesian predictive distributions for output growth and inflation in …

The economy in 1979 will be plagued with slow growth, increased unemployment, and continuing high rates of inflation …