We develop a quantitative theory of business cycles with coordination failures. Because of demand complementarities, firms seek to coordinate production and multiple equilibria arise. We use a global game approach to discipline equilibrium selection and show that the unique equilibrium exhibits...

We solve a real business cycle model with rational inattention (an RI-RBC model). In the RI-RBC model, the growth rates of employment, investment, and output are about as persistent as in the data, with an amount of inattention consistent with survey data on expectations. Moreover, consumption,...

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with rational inattention by households and firms. Consumption responds slowly to interest rate changes because households decide to pay little attention to the real interest rate. Prices respond quickly to some shocks and slowly to other...

We introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans, where house- holds lend to firms based on heterogeneous expectations about their loan default probability. Agents select among heterogeneous expectation rules, based upon their relative performance. A small fraction of pessimistic...

We introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans, where households lend to firms based on heterogeneous expectations about their loan default probability. Agents select among heterogeneous expectation rules, based upon their relative performance. A small fraction of pessimistic...

I consider a real-business cycle, DSGE model where consumption is a function of the present discounted value of wage and capital income. The agent is uncertain if these income variables are stationary or non-stationary and puts positive probability on both representations. The agent uses...

This paper examines a mechanism of liquidity-preference fluctuations caused by changes in people's belief about a random liquidity shock. When observing the shock, they rationally update their belief so that the shock probability is higher; consequently they raise liquidity preference and reduce...

We document that attention to macroeconomic conditions is counter-cyclical using a natural-language-processing method that analyzes US public firms' regulatory filings. We rationalize this phenomenon as an optimal stochastic choice pattern in response to higher stakes for tracking macroeconomic...

Capitalism is characterized by booms and busts. Periods of strong growth in output alternate with periods of declines in economic growth. Every macro-economic theory should attempt to explain these endemic business cycle movements. In this paper I present two paradigms that attempt to explain...

I propose a theory of information production and learning in credit markets in which the incentives to engage in activities that reveal information about aggregate fundamentals vary over the business cycle and may account for both the excessive optimism that fueled booms preceding financial...