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Two reasons to make aggregated probability forecasts more extreme

Baron, Jonathan; Mellers, Barbara A.; Tetlock, Philip E.; … - In: Decision analysis : a journal of the Institute for … 11 (2014) 2, pp. 133-145

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010382759

Hidden experts in the crowd : using meta-predictions to leverage expertise in single-question prediction problems

Wilkening, Tom; Martinie, Marcellin; Howe, Piers D. L. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 68 (2022) 1, pp. 487-508

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012821209

The customer knows best : the investment value of consumer opinions

Huang, Jiekun - In: Journal of financial economics 128 (2018) 1, pp. 164-182

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011971007

The contingent wisdom of dyads : when discussion enhances vs. undermines the accuracy of collaborative judgments

Minson, Julia A.; Mueller, Jennifer S.; Larrick, Richard P. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 64 (2018) 9, pp. 4177-4192

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011921508

Extracting the wisdom of crowds when information is shared

Palley, Asa B.; Soll, Jack B. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 65 (2019) 5, pp. 2291-2309

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039760

Boosting the wisdom of crowds within a single judgment problem : weighted averaging based on peer predictions

Palley, Asa B.; Satopää, Ville A. - In: Management science : journal of the Institute for … 69 (2023) 9, pp. 5128-5146

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014392893

Forecasting elections with mere recognition from small, lousy samples: A comparison of collective recognition, wisdom of crowds, and representative polls

Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Marewski, Julian N. - In: Judgment and Decision Making 6 (2011) 1, pp. 73-88

We investigated the extent to which the human capacity for recognition helps to forecast political elections: We compared naive recognition-based election forecasts computed from convenience samples of citizens' recognition of party names to (i) standard polling forecasts computed from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008835323

Prediction Markets versus Alternative Methods. Empirical Tests of Accuracy and Acceptability

Graefe, Andreas - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009434635

Prediction markets for economic forecasting

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012

Prediction markets - markets used to forecast future events - have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of political contests, sporting events, and, occasionally, economic outcomes. This chapter summarizes the latest research on prediction markets in order to further their utilization by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283631

Prediction markets for economic forecasting

Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287666

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