Negative real short-term rates occur with much higher frequency after the turn of the millennium than in the 40 years prior. This phenomenon corresponds with a significant drop in growth after 2000. In a standard representative agent consumption-based asset pricing framework with external habit,...

This chapter analyses the link between interest rates and consumption in the UK and will allow better understanding of the relationship between these two variables, as this is extremely important to the Bank of England and the monetary policy that it adopts. Analysis of the empirical evidence...

Using information in returns we identify the stochastic process of consumption – the crucial ingredient of most macro-finance models. We find that aggregate consumption reacts over multiple quarters to innovations spanned by financial markets, and this persistent component accounts for 26% of...

This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of private saving in a sample of 49 developing countries over the period 1973-83. The evidence indicates that, as indicated by the theory, a positive relationship exists between the rate of growth of consumption and the expected real...

One of the important determinants of the response of saving and consumption to the real interest rate is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. That elasticity can be measured by the response of the rate of change of consumption to changes in the expected real interest rate. A detailed...

One of the important determinants of the response of saving and consumption to the real interest rate is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. That elasticity can be measured by the response of the rate of change of consumption to changes in the expected real interest rate. A detailed...

In line with term structure theory, empirical studies suggest that it is difficult to beat the random walk in forecasting long-term interest rates. We ask whether consumer survey data on both mortgage interest rates and expected inflation help beat the random walk in forecasting the 30-year...

The basic inability of standard theoretical models to generate a sufficiently large and variable nominal bond risk premium has been termed the "bond premium puzzle." We show that the term premium on long-term bonds in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used in...