We assess the ability of the Reuters/Michigan Surveys of Consumers to predict future changes in consumer expenditures. The information in the Surveys is summarized by means of principal components of consumer attitudes with respect to income and wealth, interest rates, and prices. These summary...

This paper evaluates the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of the 2020 fiscal stimulus payments using high-frequency, transaction-level data for a sample of low-income cardholders, many of whom are unbanked. Consumers' MPC out of non-stimulus income and their MPC out of tax refunds are...

This paper evaluates the marginal propensity to consume out of the 2020 CARES Act stimulus payments using high-frequency, transaction-level data for a sample of low-income debit cardholders. It finds that spending responds less on impact to the stimulus payments than to non-stimulus income (15...