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The recent financial crisis has put the spotlight on the rapid rise in credit which preceded it. In this paper, we … provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the credit boom and the macroeconomic context in which it developed. We find … economies in which it took place. We show that this type of credit and financial cycle is hard to reconcile with existing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277874
The recent financial crisis has put the spotlight on the rapid rise in credit which preceded it. In this paper, we … provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the credit boom and the macroeconomic context in which it developed. We find … economies in which it took place. We show that this type of credit and financial cycle is hard to reconcile with existing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003843801
Using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) identified with a mix of sign and zero restrictions, we show that a restrictive bank loan supply shock has a strong and persistent negative impact on real GDP and the GDP deflator. This result comes about even though flows of other sources of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315466
Using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) identified with a mix of sign and zero restrictions, we show that a restrictive bank loan supply shock has a strong and persistent negative impact on real GDP and the GDP deflator. This result comes about even though flows of other sources of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011632175
We demonstrate that financial cycles (identified as common fluctuations in credit and asset prices, proxying balance … in prevalent proxies of financial cycles, such as the Basel III credit-to-GDP gap guiding countercyclical capital buffers … observe an improved capacity in predicting financial crises. Specifically, we use credit and asset prices as inputs to our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904565
Do the prevailing unusually and persistently low real interest rates reflect a decline in the natural rate of interest as commonly thought? We argue that this is only part of the story. The critical role of financial factors in influencing medium-term economic fluctuations must also be taken...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935733
Do the prevailing unusually and persistently low real interest rates reflect a decline in the natural rate of interest as commonly thought? We argue that this is only part of the story. The critical role of financial factors in influencing medium-term economic fluctuations must also be taken...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986636
How do the business cycle effects of loan supply shocks depend on the state of prudential regulation in the euro area? To address this question, we first identify regulatory cycles from a cumulative prudential policy index that tracks the evolution of the regulatory stance in the euro area....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014636947
The US credit boom has been identified as one of the causes of the global financial crisis and the resulting debt … overhang is seen as the primary reason for the weak economic recovery. Most of the existing literature links the credit boom to … non-financial private sector had been originated by shadow banks. Consequently, dampening credit creation by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456517
Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking and securitization activities that are orthogonal to real economy and monetary policy innovations account for more than 30 percent of U.S. output variation. The dynamic effects, however, depend on the type of shock. Expansionary securitization shocks lead to a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257361