CDS spreads contain information about expected credit risk, but how accurate is this information when uncertainty about credit risk arises? We document that CDS spreads of firms on negative credit watch (review for downgrade) change systematically into the direction implied by the ex-ante...

Do credit ratings help enforce market discipline on banks? Analyzing a uniquely comprehensive dataset consisting of 1,081 rating change announcements for 154 international financial institutions between January 2004 and December 2015, we find that rating downgrades for internal reasons, such as...