This paper explores how different reasons for business closure impact the probability that financial loss will be suffered by creditors. Using German small business data, the study finds that business closure due to financial problems is strongly correlated with a likelihood of financial loss....

We consider 1927 borrowers from 54 countries who had a credit rating by both Moody's and S&P as of the end of 1998, and their subsequent default history up to the end of 2002. Viewing bond ratings as predicted probabilities of default, we show that it is unlikely that both agencies are well...