I conduct a risk analysis of Brazil’s sovereign credit. My focus is on possible changes since 2016. Using a country-level balance sheet framework, I analyze how Brazil’s liabilities pressure its assets, increasing borrowing needs and default probability. Rises in external debt, especially...

Credit risk measurement and management become more important in all financial institutions in the light of the current financial crisis and the global recession. This particularly applies to most of the complex structured financing forms whose risk cannot be quantified with com-mon rating...

We estimate a panel error correction model for loan loss provisions, using unique supervisory data on flow of funds into and out of the allowance for loan losses of 25 Dutch banks in the post-2008 crisis period. We find that these banks aim for an allowance of 49% of impaired loans. In the short...

The abnormally high mortgage default rates that became apparent in early 2007 were not foreseen in June 2005, when mortgage production in the US reached its peak. Could the significant increase in mortgage defaults that triggered the resultant subprime crisis, have been predicted? This paper...

Using simulations, we show that the probability of default and losses given default of subprime mortgage loans are small in comparison to their interest rates. The implication is that these loans are profitable for risk neutral efficient banks. As subprime mortgages remain a good investment even...

A bank's liquidity risk lays in the intersection of funding risk and market liquidity risk. We offer a mathematical framework to make Economic Capital and RAROC sensitive to illiquidity. We introduce the concept of a liquidity cost profile as a quantification of a bank's illiquidity at balance...

Credit risk models used in quantitative risk management treat credit risk analysis conceptually like a single person decision problem. From this perspective an exogenous source of risk drives the fundamental parameters of credit risk: probability of default, exposure at default and the recovery...

This paper aims to point out the role of credit risk transfer market in the financial system. The advent of a credit risk market has profoundly altered the role of banking firms into one of asset originator and asset distributor rather than the asset holder. The traditional economics of banking...

This paper investigates the role of credit and liquidity factors in explaining corporate CDS price changes during normal and crisis periods. We find that liquidity risk is more important than firm-specific credit risk regardless of market conditions. Moreover, in the period prior to the recent...

Most credit literature concerns the management of loan or bond portfolios of banks or funds investing in fixed income. Sizeable parts of global corporate financing however is done by trade credit, where suppliers extend credit to their customers by allowing them to pay at a delayed date for...