This paper deals with stress tests for credit risk and shows how exploiting the discretion when setting up and implementing a model can drive the results of a quantitative stress test for default probabilities. For this purpose, we employ several variations of a CreditPortfolioView-style model...

We apply machine learning techniques to construct a series of models of corporate bond defaults. By combining Chinese accounting information and corporate bond data from January 2012 to December 2019, we construct an out-of-sample forecast that significantly improves the identification rate of...

This study investigates the link between capital market discipline and bank-level credit risk with a special emphasis on the role of bank ownership structure. Focusing on a large emerging market, Turkey, characterized by prominent state bank presence, our baseline regression results indicate...

This study investigates the link between capital market discipline and bank-level credit risk with a special emphasis on the role of bank ownership structure. Focusing on a large emerging market, Türkiye, characterized by a prominent state bank presence, our baseline regression results indicate...

On 3 December EY hosted a SUERF conference on banking reform with Sir Howard Davies, the Chairman of RBS, and Dame Colette Bowe, the Chairman of the Banking Standards Board, as the two keynote speakers. Professor David Miles (Imperial College) gave the SUERF 2015 Annual Lecture on Capital and...

The article addresses the issue of stress testing based on the probability of bankruptcy and a rating migration matrix. The analysis is conducted on a sample of listed companies in Poland in the years 1998-2016, and the forecasts are made for the years 2016-2018. Particular attention is paid to...

The purpose of this study is to assess model risk with respect to parameter estimation for a simple binary logistic regression model applied as a predictive model. The assessment is done by comparing the effectiveness of eleven different parameter estimation methods. The results from the...

The main purposes of this paper are to review and integrate the applications of discriminant analysis, factor analysis, and logistic regression in credit risk management. First, we discuss how the discriminant analysis can be used for credit rating such as calculating financial z-score to...

This article presents a new model for valuing a credit default swap (CDS) contract that is affected by multiple credit risks of the buyer, seller and reference entity. We show that default dependency has a significant impact on asset pricing. In fact, correlated default risk is one of the most...