Investigating linkages between credit and equity markets, we consider daily aggregate U.S. CDS spreads as well as well-chosen equity market and implied volatility indexes over ten years. We describe such robust (to spurious correlation) relationship with the quantile cointegrating regression...

Banking sector is important for various macroeconomic and microeconomic variables in terms of mobilization of funds, increasing savings, and providing alternative investment instruments suited to the every person by minimizing the risk of adverse selection and moral hazard, allocating funds to...

Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility...

In credit default prediction models, the need to deal with time-varying covariates often arises. For instance, in the context of corporate default prediction a typical approach is to estimate a hazard model by regressing the hazard rate on time-varying covariates like balance sheet or stock...

This paper analyzes the diffusion and spillover effects of credit risk among banks within a banking system, using the Mexican financial system as a case study. Credit risk is measured by the non-performing loans ratio (NPL). Our method builds on work by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) to decompose...

Данная часть завершает серию консультационных публикаций Деана Фантаццини на тему «Эконометрический анализ финансовых данных в задачах управления риском». В...

Журнал продолжает публикацию консультации Дйана Фантаццини, посвященной эконометрическому анализу финансовых данных в задачах управления риском. В данном...

This work documents the existence of a cointegration relationship between credit spreads, leverage and equity volatility for a large set of US companies. It is shown that accounting for the long-run equilibrium dynamic between these variables is essential to correctly explain credit spread...

Interconnectedness between economic institution and sectors, already recognised as a trigger of the great financial crisis in 2008-2009, is assuming growing importance in financial systems. In this paper we study contagion effects between corporate sectors using financial network models, in...

We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing aimed at assessing banks' capital adequacy, financial fragility and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on which it is...