Cyclicality in the losses of bank loans is important for bank risk management. Because loans have a different risk profile than bonds, evidence of cyclicality in bond losses need not apply to loans. Based on unique data we show that the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share a...

Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in...

The recent financial crisis has led to the development of new regulations to control risk in designated payment systems, and the implementation of new credit risk management standards is one of the key issues. In this paper, we study various credit risk management schemes for the Canadian retail...

We investigate the interdependence of the default risk of several Eurozone countries (France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain) and their domestic banks during the period June 2007 - May 2010, using daily credit default swaps (CDS). Bank bailout programs changed the...

This paper analyzes the diffusion and spillover effects of credit risk among banks within a banking system, using the Mexican financial system as a case study. Credit risk is measured by the non-performing loans ratio (NPL). Our method builds on work by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009) to decompose...

The relation between asset correlation and default probability is critical for determining bank regulatory capital requirements. It is assumed negative for sovereign, corporate and banking exposures by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. This article provides likelihood ratio tests for...

Interconnectedness between economic institution and sectors, already recognised as a trigger of the great financial crisis in 2008-2009, is assuming growing importance in financial systems. In this paper we study contagion effects between corporate sectors using financial network models, in...

We present a stochastic simulation forecasting model for stress testing aimed at assessing banks' capital adequacy, financial fragility and probability of default. The paper provides a theoretical presentation of the methodology and the essential features of the forecasting model on which it is...

This project presents the analytical framework for macroprudential policy (AFMaP) developed at the Financial Stability Directorate of the Banque de France that could be used to calibrate macroprudential instruments and to provide analytical support to macroprudential policy decision making. In...

Based on unique data we show that macro variables, the default rate and loss given default of bank loans share common cyclical components. The innovation in our model is the distinction between loans with either severe or mild losses. The variation in the proportion of these two types drives the...