The situation of a limited availability of historical data is frequently encountered in portfolio risk estimation, especially in credit risk estimation. This makes it, for example, difficult to find temporal structures with statistical significance in the data on the single asset level. By...

We outline a procedure for consistent estimation of marginal and joint default risk in the euro area financial system. We interpret the latter risk as the intrinsic financial system fragility and derive several systemic fragility indicators for euro area banks and sovereigns, based on CDS...

We introduce a new point process, the dynamic contagion process, by generalising the Hawkes process and the Cox process with shot noise intensity. Our process includes both self-excited and externally excited jumps, which could be used to model the dynamic contagion impact from endogenous and...

In addition to “classical” approaches, such as the Gaussian CreditMetrics or Basel II model, recently the use of other copulas has been proposed in the area of credit risk for modeling loss distributions, particularly T copulas which lead to fatter tails ceteris paribus. As an amendment to...

In this paper, we analyze the impact of a decline in property prices that leads to stressed recovery rates for collateral on the loss given default (LGD) parameter in portfolios of mortgage loans. We prove that the average LGD's stress sensitivity depends on the portfolio's loan-to-value (LTV-)...

The situation of a limited availability of historical data is frequently encountered in portfolio risk estimation, especially in credit risk estimation. This makes it, for example, difficult to find temporal structures with statistical significance in the data on the single asset level. By...

This paper analyses the pricing of systematic risk factors in credit default swap contracts in a two-stage empirical framework. In the first pass, we estimate contract-specific sensitivities to several systematic risk factors by time-series regressions using quoted credit default swap (CDS)...

Article refers to the issue of credit risk management in commercial banks. Particular attention is paid to the problem of stress testing. In addition, methods are presented that allow prediction of the losses of the portfolio in the context of extreme events relating to the crises of financial...

Wegeneralize existing structural credit riskmodels that account for contagion effects across economic sectors, to capture the impact of neglected skewness and excess kurtosis in the asset return process, on the shape of the credit loss distribution. We specify Skew-Normal and Skew-Student t...

This paper poses a new methodology to estimate the required economic capital for a retail-credit portfolio. The methodology is based on both the general copula concepts and some core results from the extreme value theory (EVT). The main results support the fact that the proposed methodology is...