Financial institutes have to be in a position to describe and to analyze the networks of obligors in their credit portfolios. If one obligor defaults who is numerously connected with other obligors in the portfolio there can be effects of credit contagion. We suggest a graph-based modeling of...

We describe a method to improve credit portfolio models based on the Merton model by adding to the underlying distributions forward-looking tails deducted through the Bayesian Networks technology. Given the forward-looking stance of the approach, its results give a better quanti ed picture of...

In this paper we separate the total stock return into its continuous and jump component to test whether stock return predictability should be attributed to omitted risk factors or behavioral finance theories. We extend results from the US market to the Spanish stock market, which, despite being...

We present a class of flexible and tractable static factor models for the term structure of joint default probabilities, the factor copula models. These high-dimensional models remain parsimonious with pair-copula constructions, and nest many standard models as special cases. The loss...

The statistical techniques which cover the process of modeling and evaluating consumer credit risk have become widely accepted instruments in risk management. In contrast, we find only few and vague statements on how to define the default event, i. e. on the concrete circumstances that lead to...

Credit risk transition probabilities between aggregate portfolio classes constitute a very useful tool when individual transition data are not available. Jones (2005) estimates Markovian Credit Transition Matrices using an adjusted least squares method. Given the arguments of Judge and Takayama...

Banks faced many difficulties related to lax credit standards. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and it should maintain credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. However, the problem arises when standards are...

In this paper, we propose an inflated mixture model to deal with multimodality in loss given default data. We propose a mixed of degenerate distributions, to handle zeros and ones excess, with a mixture of to-be-chosen bounded distributions for non-zeros and non-ones proportions. By applying the...