Following the extra ordinary decision to bail in the unsecured depositors and restructure the two main banks and the near complete destruction of the country’s economic business model as an International Financial Centre, the author considers the changes necessary to rebuild the economy of...

It is argued that lending where the overwhelming criterion is the collateral rather than the repayment capability of the project and the borrower is highly likely to be unproductive and will inevitably lead to a transfer of wealth. If this is done on a systematic and massive scale as was the...

Through this paper the author emphasizes the need for a coherent and multidisciplinary methodology in the assessment of credit risk in corporate lending. It is argued that credit risk should be assessed in the only context that is possible which is through cash flow projections generated by...

The transformation of credit scores into probabilities of default plays an important role in credit risk estimation. The linear logistic regression has developed into a standard calibration approach in the banking sector. With the advent of machine learning techniques in the discriminatory phase...

In this paper we develop a flexible and analytically tractable framework to compute the Credit Expected Shortfall in an explit if form through Kumaraswamy (1980) distribution with both default rate and recovery rate time-varying. The default rate is assumed to follow a square root process, and...

Short-term financing, e.g., asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) or repurchase agreements (repo), was prevalent prior to the 2007-2008 financial crises. Banks funded by short-term debts, however, are exposed to rollover risk as the banks are unable to raise sufficient funds to finance their...

We apply machine-learning techniques to construct nonlinear nonparametric forecasting models of consumer credit risk. By combining customer transactions and credit bureau data from January 2005 to April 2009 for a sample of a major commercial bank's customers, we are able to construct...

How can macroeconomic tail risks originating from financial vulnerabilities be monitored systematically over time? This question lies at the heart of operationalising the macroprudential policy regimes that have developed around the world in response to the global financial crisis. Using...

Default probability is a fundamental variable determining the credit worthiness of a firm and equity volatility estimation plays a key role in its evaluation. Assuming a structural credit risk modeling approach, we study the impact of choosing different non parametric equity volatility...