This paper analyses the determinants of euro area non-financial corporate bonds since the early 2000s, so as to gauge deviations from the law of one price. We decompose the spread between the yield of German, French, Italian and Spanish corporate bonds vis-à-vis the German Bund of similar...

The paper considers a no-arbitrage setting for pricing and relative value analysis of risky sovereign bonds. The typical case of an emerging market country (EM) that has bonds outstanding both in foreign hard currency (Eurobonds) and local soft currency (treasuries) is inspected. The resulting...

I study the term structure of credit default swap spreads to understand the dynamics of global and country-specific risk factors in explaining the time-variation in sovereign credit risk. The analysis suggests that the shape of the term structure conveys significant information on the relative...

In this paper we propose the use of an asymmetric binary link function to extend the proportional hazard model for predicting loan default. The rationale behind this approach is that the symmetry assumption, that has been widely used in the literature, could be considered as quite restrictive,...

We study the feedback from the risk of outstanding mortgage-backed securities (MBS) on the level and volatility of interest rates. We incorporate the supply shocks resulting from changes in MBS duration into a parsimonious equilibrium dynamic term structure model and derive three predictions...

This paper investigates the market pricing of subprime mortgage risk on the basis of data for the ABX.HE family of indices, which have become a key barometer of mortgage market conditions during the recent financial crisis. After an introduction into ABX index mechanics and a discussion of...

This paper documents vanilla interest-rate options (caps, floors and swaptions) newly introduced in China. The underlying rates are the RMB loan prime rates (LPRs), the foremost interest rates that matter to almost all businesses and households in China. They are digital with a tick size of five...

We show that the liquidation value of collateral depends on who is pledging it. We employ transaction-level data on overnight repurchase agreements (repo) and loan-level credit registry data on corporate loans. We find that borrowers on the repo market pay a 2.6 basis points rate premium when...

As supply chain channels physical, financial, and information flows as well as associated risks, a firm’s supply chain information should be helpful in understanding and predicting its credit risks. Credit ratings as an approximate but important measure of corporate credit risks have been...

We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...