Problem definition. Operations and decision making, often rely on accurate forecasts. The business forecasting process requires choosing the appropriate forecasting method, evaluating forecasts, aiding expert interventions, among other activities. In such activities, the metric we select to...

Inaccurate forecasts can be costly for company operations, in terms of stock-outs and lost sales, or over-stocking, while not meeting service level targets. The forecasting literature, often disjoint from the needs of the forecast users, has focused on providing optimal models in terms of...

Safety stock is necessary for firms in order to manage the uncertainty of demand. A key component in its determination is the estimation of the variance of the forecast error over lead time. Given the multitude of demand processes that lack analytical expressions of the variance of forecast...