This paper presents new evidence on the benefits of conditioning quarterly model forecasts on monthly current-quarter data. On the basis of a quarterly Bayesian vector error corrections model, the findings indicate that such conditioning produces economically relevant and statistically...

In this paper, we replicate the main results of Rudebusch and Williams (2009), who show that the use of the yield spread in a probit model can predict recessions better than the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We investigate the robustness of their results in several ways: extending the...