In this note, we describe the construction of a coincident composite index measuring economic activity in the Finnish economy. We combine information from different sectors of the Finnish economy using a dynamic factor model that permits to extract the business cycle index. The underlying...

We develop a flexible nonparametric similarity-based approach to predict the state of the business cycle in different interest rate environments. Our approach provides methodological advantages over parametric logit and probit models and new empirical perspectives on the usefulness of the term...