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Building on a mixed data sampling (MIDAS) model we evaluate the predictive power of a variety of monthly macroeconomic … indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010376402
We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623268
comparison methodology, we find that boosting is a serious competitor for forecasting US industrial production growth in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008757436
The paper provides a disaggregated mixed-frequency framework for the estimation of GDP. The GDP is disaggregated into components that can be forecasted based on information available at higher sampling frequency, i.e., monthly, weekly, or daily. The model framework is applied for Greek GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014506547
-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012417502
-time out-of-sample forecasting comparison study with one of the most widely used data sets in the newer forecasting literature … for forecasting consumption developments. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012304069
Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists. Nowcasting entails some key challenges, which also characterise modern Big Data analytics, often referred to as the three "Vs": the large number of time series continuously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259379
forecasting macroeconomic key variables such as GDP. However, the DFM has some weaknesses. For nowcasting, the dynamic factor … on euro-area data show that the now- and forecasting performance of our new model is superior to that of the subset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011566828
-Sampling approach (U-MIDAS) (see Foroni et al., 2015; Castle et al., 2009; Bec and Mogliani, 2013), and the LASSO-type penalised … regression used in Bai and Ng (2008), called the elastic net (Zou and Hastie, 2005). We illustrate our approach by forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498420
A forecasting exercise is presented to assess the predictive potential of a daily price index based on online prices …. Various classes of MIDAS models are found to produce a slight boost in terms of out-of-sample predictive performance at …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771633