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Survey-based indicators vs. hard data : what improves export forecasts in Europe?
Lehmann, Robert - 2015
In this study, we evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than … production expectations. However, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These … machinery goods. For hard indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition to explain differences in forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498606
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The falling elasticity of global trade to economic activity : testing the demand channel
Auboin, Marc; Borino, Floriana - 2017 - Manuscript date: April 2017
direction. We estimated the standard import equation for 38 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995-2015, using … an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD), calculated from input-output tables at country level, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011635156
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The falling elasticity of global trade to economic activity : testing the demand channel
Auboin, Marc; Borino, Floriana - 2018
direction. We estimated the standard import equation for 38 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995-2015, using … an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD), calculated from input-output tables at country level, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900772
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Global economy : slow recovery following deep recession
Michelsen, Claus; Baldi, Guido; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 10 (2020) 37, pp. 390-392
increase markedly. DIW Berlin calculates that global produc- tion will shrink by 4.0 percent in 2020. During the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012291931
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German economy slowly recovering following a deep slump
Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 10 (2020) 24/25, pp. 284-290
The coronavirus recession has left deep marks on the German economy and despite economic policy action, it is likely to heal only slowly. The partial easing of the lockdown and a gradual revival of global value chains are generating positive stimuli, but massive income losses will curb demand...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251300
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Growth rate of German economy normalizing after prolonged economic boom
Michelsen, Claus; Breuer, Christian; Bruns, Martin; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 8 (2018) 50/52, pp. 510-513
The German economy continues to perform well although the boom has ended. However, at 1.5 percent, German GDP will increase this year at a lower rate than expected at the beginning of the year. Nevertheless, concerns about an imminent recession should give way to the assessment that the pace of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946925
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German economy defying a turbulent and uncertain environment
Michelsen, Claus; Bruns, Martin; Clemens, Marius; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 9 (2019) 22/24, pp. 196-199
After a turbulent summer, marked by a weak second and a likely stronger third quarter, the German economy should return to an average pace of growth and end up with a growth rate of 0.9 percent in 2019. Despite the more subdued pace, capacity utilization remains high; employment growth is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012016596
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German economy : industry struggles to shake of the crisis : DIW economic outlook
Michelsen, Claus; Clemens, Marius; Hanisch, Max; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 9 (2019) 49/50, pp. 424-430
The German economy remains weak as of the fourth quarter of 2019. However, although industrial production is continuing its downward trend, there are signs of a slow recovery. The manufacturing sector is likely to expand production gradually beginning in 2020; therefore, it is less likely the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012151733
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The global economy and the euro area : weak international trade, robust domestic demand : DIW economic outlook
Michelsen, Claus; Baldi, Guido; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 9 (2019) 11/12, pp. 100-101
, particularly affected by foreign trade. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2019 and 3 … situation in Italy are causing uncertainty. Against this backdrop, monetary policy is likely to be expansionary in the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011992301
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German economy : optimistic despite decline as 2020 ends
Michelsen, Claus; Berenberg-Gossler, Paul; Clemens, Marius - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 10 (2020) 50, pp. 476-482
final quarter of 2020. If the second wave can be brought under control over the course of winter 2020/2021, as this forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012390053