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forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012146339
encouraging. In a pseudo out-of-sample exercise, our approach beats relevant benchmarks for forecasting CPI inflation and an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508347
-time and final data releases differ, we also observe minimal impacts on the relative forecasting performance of indicator …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011595370
Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125
pooling techniques, including Mallows model averaging and Cross-Validation model averaging, for short-term forecasting euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472548
For the timely detection of business-cycle turning points we suggest to use mediumsized linear systems (subset VARs with automated zero restrictions) to forecast the relevant underlying variables, and to derive the probability of the turning point from the forecast density as the probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010233998
leverage a novel real-time dataset to conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP …). MF-BVARs are shown to provide an attractive alternative to surveys of professional forecasters for forecasting GDP growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011485951
Most macroeconomic indicators failed to capture the sharp economic fluctuations during the Corona crisis in a timely manner. Instead, alternative high-frequency data have been used, aiming to monitor the economic situation. However, these data are often only loosely related to the business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012395297
proposed model demonstrates a remarkable performance in short-term and medium-term forecasting. Using real-time GDP data since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011732586
conduct. Given that GDP figures are available with a significant delay central banks are increasingly using Nowcasting as a … useful tool for having an immediate perception of economic conditions. We develop a GDP growth Nowcasting exercise using a … compare their relative forecasting ability using the Giacomini and White (2004) test and find no significant difference in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771629