This paper discusses extensions of standard Markov switching models that allow estimated probabilities to reflect parameter breaks at or close to the end of the sample, too close for standard maximum likelihood techniques to produce precise parameter estimates. The basic technique is a...

This paper presents evidence that the economic stall speed concept has some empirical content, and can be moderately useful in forecasting recessions. Specifically, output tends to transition to a slow-growth phase at the end of expansions before falling into a recession, and the paper designs...

This work estimates Markov switching models on real time data and shows that the growth rate of gross domestic income (GDI), deflated by the GDP deflator, has done a better job recognizing the start of recessions than has the growth rate of real GDP. This result suggests that placing an...