practice using data from Sweden. We compare the forecast performance of BVAR and DSGE models with the Riksbank's official, more …- and judgment based forecasts, and show that the combined forecast performs well out-of-sample. In addition, we show the …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden …. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both …

property that as the forecast horizon shortens accuracy improves. On average, forecasters underpredict inflation, but this …-ahead forecasts but not for current year. Tests' results point to forecast inefficiency which is also evidenced by a tendency to … inflation rate and the extent of underprediction increases during recessions. The hypothesis of forecast efficiency is …

, reveals a slight trend towards increased forecast accuracy as the daily variable approaches a full month for certain horizons. …

the business survey, i.e. the survey replies by the price-setters themselves, contributes most to these forecast …