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augmentation, incorporating stochastic volatility in the state equation, and accounting for serial correlation in the measurement …
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We construct a composite index to measure real activity of the Swiss economy on a weekly frequency. The index is based … means of a real-time evaluation, we highlight the importance of our proposed adjustment procedure: first, our weekly index … significantly outperforms a comparable index without adjusted input variables; secondly, the weekly index outperforms established …
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We construct sentiment indices for 20 countries from 1980 to 2019. Relying on computational text analysis, we capture specific language like 'fear', 'risk', 'hedging', 'opinion', and, 'crisis', as well as 'positive' and 'negative' sentiments, in news articles from the Financial Times. We assess...
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Four model selection methods are applied to the problem of predicting business cycle turning points: equally-weighted forecasts, Bayesian model averaged forecasts, and two models produced by the machine learning algorithm boosting. The model selection algorithms condition on different economic...
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