The Chicago Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is used for policy analysis and forecasting at the … used to forecast the U.S. economy. In many respects the model resembles other medium-scale New Keynesian frameworks, but …

-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …