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Forecasting the Macroeconomy : Analysts versus Economists

Hann, Rebecca N. - 2012

implications for forecast efficiency and the stock market. We find that the two sets of forecasts strongly covary over the 1984 to … aggregate earnings, the converse is not true. Additional tests suggest that analysts underreact to economists' negative forecast … revisions (i.e., aggregate earnings forecast errors are predictably more negative following economists' downward forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013096055

Why does the yield-curve slope predict recessions?

Benzoni, Luca; Chyruk, Olena; Kelley, David - 2018

Why is an inverted yield-curve slope such a powerful predictor of future recessions? We show that a decomposition of the yield curve slope into its expectations and risk premia components helps disentangle the channels that connect fluctuations in Treasury rates and the future state of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011924714

Modeling Corporate Bond Spreads : An Application-Oriented Forecasting Exercise

Menz, Klaus-Michael - 2009

The question of predictability of credit spreads is of more than just academic interest. The ability to generate unerring spread forecasts is of considerable practical relevance for both treasurers of companies, who want to finance themselves through bonds, and institutional investors, who must...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152995

Recession Analysts and Conservative Forecasting

Clement, Michael B. - 2014

find that their forecast properties are associated with the adverse macroeconomic conditions at the time of initial hire or …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013063317

Monetary policy, inflation outlook, and recession probabilities

Ajello, Andrea; Benzoni, Luca; Schwinn, Makena; Timmer, … - 2022

Why does the short-term slope of the yield curve predict recessions? We explore the economic forces underlying Treasury yields' fluctuations and highlight the roles of a tight monetary policy stance and expectations of lower inflation in predicting downturns. While the monetary policy stance is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013279282

Short-term forecast of Ukrainian economy including shadow sector using causal simulation model

Vasylenko, Yuri V. - In: Mokslo darbai / Ekonomika / Vilniaus Universitetas 99 (2020) 1, pp. 131-145

various types of legal and shadow economic activities and their interrelations. The model is used to forecast the whole (legal … Ukrainian authorities take an active position in the implementation of the developed forecast for the economic development of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264616