We develop a model of firm learning in volatile markets with noisy signals and test its predictions using historical German data. Firms' forecasts improve with age. We exploit German Reunification as a natural experiment where firms in the East are treated with ignorance about the distribution...

Many studies raise the issue of relationships between internationalization and innovativeness, linking them with firms' international competitiveness. However, very few of these studies focus on the influence of internationalization on innovativeness and regard the multifaceted nature of these...

In this paper we test the Rational Expectations hypothesis using longitudinal data on expectations and realizations of individual welfare for East Germans in the years following reunification. German reunification was unexpected and delivered a large shock to the future prospects of the...