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from individual expectations. Subjects have no information about underlying market equilibrium equations, but can learn by … stable treatment, rational expectations (RE) yield a good description of observed aggregate price fluctuations: prices remain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333266
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431
We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations … about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First … changes in economic expectations in turn are likely to affect household economic decisions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306053
inferences under rational expectations, whereas the fraction of backward looking price setters increases. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011573204
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news … of households' stated inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple …, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding inflation expectations and information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115086
Under adaptive learning, recursive algorithms are proposed to represent how agents update their beliefs over time. For applied purposes these algorithms require initial estimates of agents perceived law of motion. Obtaining appropriate initial estimates can become prohibitive within the usual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619472
therefore paramount to a proper understanding of the role of expectations in the determination of macroeconomic outcomes. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997475
roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts … as a selection device in models with multiple REE (rational expectations equilibria). Third, the learning dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243