Global games of regime change – coordination games of incomplete information in which a status quo is abandoned once a sufficiently large fraction of agents attacks it – have been used to study crises phenomena such as currency attacks, bank runs, debt crises, and political change. We extend...

This paper uses a laboratory experiment to test the predictions of a dynamic global game designed to capture the self-fulfilling nature of speculative attacks. The game has two stages and a large number of heterogeneously informed agents deciding whether to attack the status quo. In the first...

Asian policymakers are giving consideration to allowing their currencies to be used by non-residents. If policy allows this and a robust fixed income market provides support, the Australian experience indicates that a currency can internationalise fairly quickly, particularly if it offers a...

This paper provides a model framework to characterize the process of stochastic learning during the period of divergence from a de jure currency regime. The model outcome shows that divergence from a de jure regime is a process of slow learning in small steps, which indicates that the learning...

We propose a novel approach for loss reserving based on deep neural networks. The approach allows for joint modeling of paid losses and claims outstanding, and incorporation of heterogeneous inputs. We validate the models on loss reserving data across lines of business, and show that they...

The purpose of this paper is to survey recent developments in granular models and machine learning models for loss reserving, and to compare the two families with a view to assessment of their potential for future development. This is best understood against the context of the evolution of these...

This paper presents different deep neural network architectures designed to forecast the distribution of returns on a portfolio of U.S. Treasury securities. A long short-term memory model and a convolutional neural network are tested as the main building blocks of each architecture. The models...