Representativeness is a foundational yet slippery concept. Though familiar at first blush, it lacks a single precise meaning. Instead, meanings range from typical or characteristic, to a proportionate match between sample and population, to a more general sense of accuracy, generalizability,...

We run an experiment to compare belief formation and learning under compound risk and under ambiguity at the individual level. We estimate a four-type mixture model assuming that subjects may either follow Bayes Rule or behave according to the multiple priors model of Epstein and Schneider...

We use a large-scale representative survey of households from October 19-21 that elicits respondents' expectations about the presidential election's outcome as well as their economic expectations to document several new facts. First, people disagree strongly about the likely outcome of the...

This paper provides evidence based guidance for practical survey work, namely choosing interviewers and their workload. Analyzing a survey of 3568 households obtained through computer assisted personal interviews (CAPI) we find that interviewers learn considerably while the survey progresses....

Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for...

We report experiments in which humans repeatedly play one of two games against a computer program that follows either a reinforcement learning or an Experience Weighted Attraction algorithm. Our experiments show these learning algorithms detect exploitable opportunities more sensitively than...

Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for...

Do people know their own risk preferences, or do risk choices change with experience and observation? We provide a clean and straightforward test in the laboratory. People make an initial decision concerning a lottery choice and then experience 24 practice periods in which they roll the dice,...