Showing 1 - 10 of 1,104
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431
roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts … as a selection device in models with multiple REE (rational expectations equilibria). Third, the learning dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243
We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news … of households' stated inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple …, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding inflation expectations and information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115086
Why do individuals interpret the same information differently? We propose that individuals follow Bayes' Rule when forming posteriors with one exception: when assessing the credibility of experts, they "double-dip" the data and use already-updated beliefs instead of their priors. Our proposed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011756731
thinking in the first supplement. This deviation from rational expectations appears to explain the initial failure of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242208
form adaptive expectations, based on an evolving individual mental model, their behaviour becomes much more interesting in … indicate that assumptions on bounded rationality, and on adaptive expectations are perfectly compatible with sound and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066457
standard rational expectations model. The ex-ante consumption equivalent variation that equates the expected utility of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850416
Experimental evidence shows that the rational expectations hypothesis fails to characterize the path to equilibrium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842597