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Payments and discounts incentivize participation in many transactions about which people know little, but can learn more --- payments for medical trial participation, signing bonuses for job applicants, or price rebates on consumer durables. Who opts into the transaction when given such...
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We compare forecasts from different adaptive learning algorithms and calibrations applied to US real-time data on inflation and growth. We find that the Least Squares with constant gains adjusted to match (past) survey forecasts provides the best overall performance both in terms of forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010344932
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news … of households' stated inflation expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple …, robust and new evidence highlighting the role of the media for understanding inflation expectations and information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115086
roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts … as a selection device in models with multiple REE (rational expectations equilibria). Third, the learning dynamics …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024243
Why do individuals interpret the same information differently? We propose that individuals follow Bayes' Rule when forming posteriors with one exception: when assessing the credibility of experts, they "double-dip" the data and use already-updated beliefs instead of their priors. Our proposed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011756731
form adaptive expectations, based on an evolving individual mental model, their behaviour becomes much more interesting in … indicate that assumptions on bounded rationality, and on adaptive expectations are perfectly compatible with sound and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066457
Experimental evidence shows that the rational expectations hypothesis fails to characterize the path to equilibrium …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842597
Experimental evidence shows that the rational expectations hypothesis fails to characterize the path to equilibrium … rules. A reformulation of naïve expectations with similarity-based learning approach is found to have a higher predictive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842925