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Finetti Theorem for this framework. A model of updating is also provided. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011695312
decisions on risk assessment and risk management under conditions of ambiguity, i.e. where probabilities cannot be assigned to … underpins conventional cost-benet analysis (CBA). The other requires that an ambiguity-averse decision-rule - of which maxmin …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409139
We provide an axiomatic approach to a belief formation process in an informational environment characterized by limited, heterogenous and differently precise information. For a list of previously observed cases an agent needs to express her belief by assigning probabilities to possible outcomes....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010356678
updating rules are quite heterogeneous. For most subjects, we can reject the objective equality hypothesis that beliefs are … pessimism/optimism in beliefs. The Bayesian updating hypothesis can be rejected; Most subjects under-adjust beliefs in response …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012432016
Decisions under ambiguity depend on the beliefs regarding possible scenarios and the attitude towards ambiguity. This … studies. We use laboratory experiments to estimate the subjective belief formation and belief updating process in an ambiguous … be rejected. The recovered belief updating rules reveal that the Bayesian updating hypothesis can be rejected for 84% of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012303335
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011874058
frameworks endowed with a common prior. When communication is private and nobody is excluded from it, we show that ambiguity …-free communication is a necessary and sufficient condition for a consensus to emerge. However, when communication is public, ambiguity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014484275
We report an experiment on a decision task by SAMUELSON and BAZERMAN (1985). Subjects submit a bid for an item with an unknown value. A winner s curse phenomenon arises when subjects bid too high and make losses. Learning direction theory can account for this. However, other influences on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539130
Epstein and Schneider (2007) develop a framework of learning under ambiguity, generalizing maxmin preferences of Gilboa …-post rejection of theories gives rise to choices that are in sharp contradiction with ambiguity aversion. Concrete, the intertemporal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010424809
We study the influence of reason and intuition on decision making over time. Facing a sequence of similar problems, agents can either decide rationally according to expected utility theory or intuitively according to case-based decision theory. Rational decisions are more precise but create...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010464891