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Charness, Gary; Chemaya, Nir; Trujano-Ochoa, Dario - 2022

Do people know their own risk preferences, or do risk choices change with experience and observation? We provide a clean and straightforward test in the laboratory. People make an initial decision concerning a lottery choice and then experience 24 practice periods in which they roll the dice,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013404466

A model of ideological thinking

Le Yaouanq, Yves - 2018

This paper develops a theory in which heterogeneity in political preferences produces a partisan disagreement about … voters' intrinsic preferences or because of rigidities in the political process. The theory predicts that providing mixed …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011899691

Underestimating Learning by Doing

Horn, Samantha; Loewenstein, George - 2021

experimental participants predict the speed at which they will master an unfamiliar task. The first experiment finds systematic … experiment shows that underpredicting learning leads decision makers to make choices that lower average payoffs …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322525

Optional Disclosure and Observational Learning

Peng, Diefeng - 2017

Observational learning theories often assume that people's actions can be observed. However, in many naturally-occurring environments, individuals can choose whether to disclose their behavior to others. We provide theoretical analysis of observational learning under optional disclosure...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012941804

Overconfidence and prejudice

Heidhues, Paul; Kőszegi, Botond; Strack, Philipp - 2024

We develop a model in which an overconfident agent learns about groups in society from observations of his and others' successes. In our model, both the agent's information and his beliefs are multi-dimensional, allowing us to study interactions between different views. Overall, society always...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014578270

Learning direction theory and the winners curse

Selten, Reinhard; Abbink, Klaus; Cox, Ricarda - 2001

We report an experiment on a decision task by SAMUELSON and BAZERMAN (1985). Subjects submit a bid for an item with an … unknown value. A winner s curse phenomenon arises when subjects bid too high and make losses. Learning direction theory can … account for this. However, other influences on behaviour can also be identified. We introduce impulse balance theory to make …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539130

Learning direction theory and the winners curse

Selten, Reinhard; Abbink, Klaus; Cox, Ricarda - 2001

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013430409

Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments

Hommes, Cars H. (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008

Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257

Beliefs and Endogenous Cognitive Levels : An Experimental Study

Agranov, Marina; Potamites, Elizabeth; Schotter, Andrew; … - 2012

In this paper we use a laboratory setting to manipulate our subjects’ beliefs about the cognitive levels of the players they are playing against. We show that in the context of the 2/3 guessing game, individual choices crucially depend on their beliefs about the level of others. Hence, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014041049

Dual Beliefs : Subjective Learning of Trading Talent

He, Xindi - 2022

This paper studies how investors evaluate themselves and its implications. In my model, investors form subjective beliefs about both the stock currently held in portfolio and their trading talent and update their beliefs through learning with fading memory. I calibrate the memory decay...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236879