This paper develops a dynamic analysis of the trade balance to investigate the roles of supply and demand shocks. It also introduces global shocks in the analysis to take into account the comovement of income across countries. The results, based on the long-run historical data and a structural...

For a better understanding of the ongoing debates on the RMB, this paper investigates the effects of exchange rate shocks on output and the current account for China and Japan. We use structural vector auto-regression models and find that yen appreciation reduces current account surpluses while...