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Economists tend to assume that agents maximize their expected utility. However, many different experiments have questioned expected utility maximization by showing that human behavior can be characterized as random. This paper proposes Thompson Sampling as a theory of human behavior across very...
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interest rate rule, raising the possibility of inefficient fluctuations due to the dependence of expectations on extraneous … combine forward looking expectations and predetermined variables. We consider a variety of specifications that incorporate …
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The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and … effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy … heterogeneous expectations model with a performance-based evolutionary selection among heterogeneous forecasting heuristics to the …
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requirement that the underlying rational expectations equilibrium is locally indeterminate. We suggest ways in which policymakers …
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Why are some people more optimistic about their life than others? Literature on locus of control suggests that optimism is associated with the belief that one's life outcomes are controlled by internal factors, such as ability, instead of external factors, such as powerful others or chance....
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