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First impressions matter : signalling as a source of policy dynamics
Hansen, Stephen; McMahon, Michael - 2012
-motivated reputation building may be important for explaining dynamics in experts' policy choices. -- signalling ; learning ; monetary … with experience. We then reject increasing confidence in private information or learning about the structure of the … data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009518217
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First Impressions Matter : Signalling as a Source of Policy Dynamics
Hansen, Stephen - 2013
with experience. We then reject increasing confidence in private information or learning about the structure of the … data. The motivation for signalling is consistent with wanting to control inflation expectations, but not career concerns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091148
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The science of monetary policy : an imperfect knowledge perspective
Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce - 2016
New Keynesian theory identifies a set of principles central to the design and implementation of monetary policy. These principles rely on the ability of a central bank to manage expectations precisely, with policy prescriptions typically derived under the assumption of perfect information and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011496866
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Persuasion by dimension reduction
Malamud, Semyon; Schrimpf, Andreas - 2021 - This version: October 17, 2021
How should an agent (the sender) observing multi-dimensional data (the state vector) persuade another agent to take the desired action? We show that it is always optimal for the sender to perform a (non-linear) dimension reduction by projecting the state vector onto a lower-dimensional object...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799529
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Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy
Hoffmann, Mathias; Hürtgen, Patrick - 2016
Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts are not fully aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile these two facts we introduce dispersed information in a New Keynesian model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520661
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Experience-based heterogeneity in expectations and monetary policy
Radke, Lucas; Wicknig, Florian - 2021
Experience-Based Learning (EBL) that renders expectations heterogeneous across age groups. Under EBL, the age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013330596
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Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning
Evans, George W.; McGough, Bruce - 2003
under private agent learning can in some cases be stable when the observed sunspot has a suitable time series structure. In …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298274
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The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning, and expectations
Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C. - 2004
policymakers, learning from the experience of the 1970s, eschewed activist policies in favor of policies that concentrated on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010298293
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Exchange rate dynamics, expectations, and monetary policy
Chen, Qianying - 2011
This paper re-investigates the implications of monetary policy rules on changes in exchange rate, in a risk-adjusted, uncovered interest parity model with unrestricted parameters, emphasizing the importance of modeling market expectations of monetary policy. I use consensus forecasts as a proxy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010305998
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Near-rational exuberance
Bullard, James; Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo - 2005
We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604601